Growth of the Church
Tables: The data and ANOVA tables used in the regressions.
Charts:
Chart 1 shows that the percentage of members who are missionaries at any given time has remained constant. | |
Chart 2 shows that the number of converts per missionary has been going down since 1989. | |
Chart 3 shows that Before 1990 the number of convert baptisms grew exponentially, but since 1990 the number of convert baptisms has not been growing exponentially. | |
Chart 4 shows that since the mid 80's the number of children of record baptized has been going down, not growing exponentially as before. | |
Chart 5 shows the declining force of growth regression line. | |
Chart 6 breaks the force of growth into children baptized, converts baptized, and decrements. | |
Chart 7 shows that if we disregard the 1989 anomaly the force of growth declines and a smaller rate. | |
Chart 8 shows the projected growth of the church associated with the force of growth lines in Chart 7. | |
Chart 9 shows the projected growth of the church using the fitted exponential forth of growth assumption. | |
Chart 10 shows the error terms associated with the regression in Chart 9. | |
Chart 11 compares the above forecast with the forecasts of Stark and Anderson. |
If you have a question or would like to discuss these topics, I suggest that you go to a Mormon-related bulletin board. If you'd like to <i>contact me</i> with comments or feedback, you may send an email to analytics@lds4u.com.CompanyEmail