Growth of the Church
Index of Graphs

Tables:  The data and ANOVA tables used in the regressions.

Charts:

Chart 1 shows that the percentage of members who are missionaries at any given time has remained constant.
Chart 2 shows that the number of converts per missionary has been going down since 1989.
Chart 3 shows that Before 1990 the number of convert baptisms grew exponentially, but since 1990 the number of convert baptisms has not been growing exponentially.
Chart 4 shows that since the mid 80's the number of children of record baptized has been going down, not growing exponentially as before.
Chart 5 shows the declining force of growth regression line.
Chart 6 breaks the force of growth into children baptized, converts baptized, and decrements.
Chart 7 shows that if we disregard the 1989 anomaly the force of growth declines and a smaller rate.
Chart 8 shows the projected growth of the church associated with the force of growth lines in Chart 7.
Chart 9 shows the projected growth of the church using the fitted exponential forth of growth assumption.
Chart 10 shows the error terms associated with the regression in Chart 9.
Chart 11 compares the above forecast with the forecasts of Stark and Anderson.

 

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