Growth of the Church
Tables
| t | Year | Membership | Delta | Fitted Delta w/89 | Fitted Data w/o 89 |
|
-1 |
1982 |
5,165,000 |
|||
|
0 |
1983 |
5,400,000 |
0.04449 |
0.05188 |
0.04787 |
|
1 |
1984 |
5,650,000 |
0.04526 |
0.05076 |
0.04695 |
|
2 |
1985 |
5,920,000 |
0.04668 |
0.04964 |
0.04604 |
|
3 |
1986 |
6,170,000 |
0.04136 |
0.04852 |
0.04513 |
|
4 |
1987 |
6,440,000 |
0.04283 |
0.04740 |
0.04421 |
|
5 |
1988 |
6,720,000 |
0.04256 |
0.04627 |
0.04330 |
|
6 |
1989 |
7,300,000 |
0.08279 |
0.04515 |
0.04239 |
|
7 |
1990 |
7,760,000 |
0.06111 |
0.04403 |
0.04147 |
|
8 |
1991 |
8,120,000 |
0.04535 |
0.04291 |
0.04056 |
|
9 |
1992 |
8,406,895 |
0.03472 |
0.04179 |
0.03964 |
|
10 |
1993 |
8,696,221 |
0.03384 |
0.04066 |
0.03873 |
|
11 |
1994 |
9,024,569 |
0.03706 |
0.03954 |
0.03782 |
|
12 |
1995 |
9,340,898 |
0.03445 |
0.03842 |
0.03690 |
|
13 |
1996 |
9,694,549 |
0.03716 |
0.03730 |
0.03599 |
|
14 |
1997 |
10,070,524 |
0.03805 |
0.03618 |
0.03508 |
|
15 |
1998 |
10,354,241 |
0.02778 |
0.03505 |
0.03416 |
|
16 |
1999 |
10,752,986 |
0.03779 |
0.03393 |
0.03325 |
|
17 |
2000 |
11,068,861 |
0.02895 |
0.03281 |
0.03234 |
|
Regression Statistics |
|
|
Multiple R |
0.474582 |
|
R Square |
0.225228 |
|
Adjusted R Square |
0.176805 |
|
Standard Error |
0.011451 |
|
Observations |
18 |
|
ANOVA |
|||||
|
df |
SS |
MS |
F |
Significance F |
|
|
Regression |
1 |
0.00061 |
0.00061 |
4.651234 |
0.04659 |
|
Residual |
16 |
0.002098 |
0.000131 |
||
|
Total |
17 |
0.002708 |
|
Coefficients |
Standard Error |
t Stat |
P-value |
Lower 95% |
Upper 95% |
Lower 95.0% |
Upper 95.0% |
|
|
Intercept |
0.051883 |
0.005181 |
10.01483 |
2.69E-08 |
0.040901 |
0.062865 |
0.040901 |
0.062865 |
|
X Variable 1 |
-0.00112 |
0.00052 |
-2.15667 |
0.04659 |
-0.00222 |
-1.9E-05 |
-0.00222 |
-1.9E-05 |
Table 3 (back)
|
Year |
Membership |
Children of Record Baptisms |
Convert Baptisms |
Decrements |
Increase due to Children of Record Baptisms |
Increase due to Convert Baptisms |
Decrease (Increase) due to Decrements |
|
1983 |
5,400,000 |
69,000 |
189,419 |
23,419 |
1.34% |
3.67% |
0.45% |
|
1984 |
5,650,000 |
69,000 |
192,983 |
11,983 |
1.28% |
3.57% |
0.22% |
|
1985 |
5,920,000 |
70,000 |
197,640 |
(2,360) |
1.24% |
3.50% |
(0.04%) |
|
1986 |
6,170,000 |
72,000 |
216,210 |
38,210 |
1.22% |
3.65% |
0.65% |
|
1987 |
6,440,000 |
75,000 |
227,284 |
32,284 |
1.22% |
3.68% |
0.52% |
|
1988 |
6,720,000 |
73,000 |
256,515 |
49,515 |
1.13% |
3.98% |
0.77% |
|
1989 |
7,300,000 |
75,000 |
318,940 |
(186,060) |
1.12% |
4.75% |
(2.77%) |
|
1990 |
7,760,000 |
78,000 |
330,877 |
(51,123) |
1.07% |
4.53% |
(0.70%) |
|
1991 |
8,120,000 |
75,000 |
297,770 |
12,770 |
0.97% |
3.84% |
0.16% |
|
1992 |
8,406,895 |
77,380 |
274,477 |
64,962 |
0.95% |
3.38% |
0.80% |
|
1993 |
8,696,221 |
76,312 |
304,808 |
91,794 |
0.91% |
3.63% |
1.09% |
|
1994 |
9,024,569 |
72,538 |
300,730 |
44,920 |
0.83% |
3.46% |
0.52% |
|
1995 |
9,340,898 |
71,139 |
304,330 |
59,140 |
0.79% |
3.37% |
0.66% |
|
1996 |
9,694,549 |
72,540 |
321,385 |
40,274 |
0.78% |
3.44% |
0.43% |
|
1997 |
10,070,524 |
74,100 |
317,798 |
15,923 |
0.76% |
3.28% |
0.16% |
|
1998 |
10,354,241 |
72,361 |
299,134 |
87,778 |
0.72% |
2.97% |
0.87% |
|
1999 |
10,752,986 |
70,623 |
306,171 |
(21,950) |
0.68% |
2.96% |
(0.21%) |
|
2000 |
11,068,861 |
68,885 |
273,973 |
26,984 |
0.64% |
2.55% |
0.25% |
|
Exponential Model (Including 1989 anomaly) |
|
|
SUMMARY OUTPUT |
|
|
Regression Statistics |
|
|
Multiple R |
0.573955 |
|
R Square |
0.329425 |
|
Adjusted R Square |
0.287514 |
|
Standard Error |
0.214633 |
|
Observations |
18 |
|
ANOVA |
|||||
|
df |
SS |
MS |
F |
Significance F |
|
|
Regression |
1 |
0.362094 |
0.362094 |
7.860116 |
0.012747 |
|
Residual |
16 |
0.737077 |
0.046067 |
||
|
Total |
17 |
1.099171 |
|
Coefficients |
Standard Error |
t Stat |
P-value |
Lower 95% |
Upper 95% |
Lower 95.0% |
Upper 95.0% |
|
|
Intercept |
-2.93571 |
0.105548 |
-27.8139 |
5.63E-15 |
-3.15946 |
-2.71196 |
-3.15946 |
-2.71196 |
|
X Variable 1 |
-0.02734 |
0.009751 |
-2.80359 |
0.012747 |
-0.04801 |
-0.00667 |
-0.04801 |
-0.00667 |