Charts and Tables

Table 1: Historical membership growth
(Source: Church Almanac)

Year	Membership
1979	4,439,000
1980	4,638,000
1981	4,936,000
1982	5,165,000
1983	5,400,000
1984	5,650,000
1985	5,920,000
1986	6,170,000
1987	6,440,000
1988	6,720,000
1989	7,300,000
1990	7,760,000
1991	8,120,000
1992	8,406,895
1993	8,696,221
1994	9,024,569
1995	9,340,898
1996	9,694,549
1997	10,070,524
1998	10,354,241
1999	10,752,986
2000	11,068,861
2001	11,394,522

Table 2: ANOVA of regression testing for recent historical exponential growth

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.5358
R Square	0.2871
Adjusted R Square	0.2515
Standard Error	0.0108
Observations	22

ANOVA
	Df	SS	MS	F	Significance F
Regression	1	0.00094	0.00094	8.05511	0.01016
Residual	20	0.00234	0.00012
Total	21	0.00329

	Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Lower 95.0%	Upper 95.0%
Intercept	0.0547	0.0048	11.4518	3.092E-10	0.0448	0.0647	0.0448	0.0647
X Variable 1	(0.0010)	0.0004	(2.8382)	0.0102	(0.0018)	(0.0003)	(0.0018)	(0.0003)

Chart 1: Regression of Historical Growth Rate

Chart 2: Growth of children in church

Chart 3: Children blessed as a percentage of new members is going down.

Table 3: ANOVA testing exponentially decaying growth rate

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.6358
R Square	0.4043
Adjusted R Square	0.3745
Standard Error	0.2047
Observations	22

ANOVA
	df	SS	MS	F	Significance F
Regression	1	0.5686	0.5686	13.5733	0.0015
Residual	20	0.8378	0.0419
Total	21	1.4064

	Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Lower 95.0%	Upper 95.0%
Intercept	47.2550	13.6908	3.4516	0.0025	18.6965	75.8134	18.6965	75.8134
X Variable 1	(0.0253)	0.0069	(3.6842)	0.0015	(0.0397)	(0.0110)	(0.0397)	(0.0110)

Chart 4: Exponentially decaying growth rate membership projection

Chart 5: Errors in exponentially decaying growth rate model

Chart 6: Comparison of growth projections